Elise Mertens vs Aryna Sabalenka Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• How do Sabalenka and Mertens compare in second serve performance? Sabalenka has a slightly lower success rate at 40.03% compared to Mertens' 40.53% over the last six months.
• Which player shows stronger return game stats? Sabalenka edges out Mertens in return game performance, winning 48.54% of opponents' second serve points against Mertens' 48.32%.
• Examining their first serve return stats, Sabalenka prevails with 30.66% over Mertens' 27.64%.
• Under pressure, who saves breakpoints more effectively? Sabalenka excels with a 53.78% breakpoint save rate compared to Mertens' 49.87%.
• Looking at their performance overview from the last year, Sabalenka has a superior win rate of 84.52%, significantly higher than Mertens' 64.91%.
• On a hard surface, Sabalenka has a 74% win percentage, surpassing Mertens' 66% on the same surface.
• In head-to-head meetings, Sabalenka has dominated, winning 10 out of 12 matches against Mertens.
• When under extreme pressure during tiebreaks, both players are evenly matched with 1 win each in their meetings.
• In matches that reach a deciding set, Sabalenka tends to perform better, claiming victory in 61% of those instances compared to Mertens' 47%.
• Sabalenka also plays against a slightly stronger level of opposition, with opponents averaging a rank of 41.49 compared to Mertens’ 52.93.
• Finally, Sabalenka demonstrates superior breakpoint conversion, securing 36.43% of opportunities, while Mertens converts 30.56%.

Editorial Prediction (July 6, 2025, UTC):

As we analyze both players' statistics, Sabalenka shows a considerable edge in several key areas. Her return game, particularly against first serves, and her ability to convert breakpoints stand out.

Sabalenka clearly performs better under pressure, as indicated by her higher breakpoint save percentage and stronger record in deciding sets. Additionally, her dominant head-to-head record against Mertens cannot be ignored.

Given these observations, Sabalenka holds a significant advantage in this matchup. While Mertens is competitive, the data suggests Sabalenka is more likely to emerge victorious in their upcoming encounter.